Posted by: jasonmcgraph | November 26, 2008

Consequences Of Global Economy Deterioration

Japan MarketsMassive stimulus plans to drive the world out of recession took center stage on Wednesday with the European Union asked to provide a 200 billion euro boost and China announcing its biggest interest rate cut in 11 years. The stimulus moves in Europe and China followed Tuesday’s announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve of an $800 billion plan to buy mortgage-related debt and back consumer loans. China’s cut in banks’ benchmark lending and deposit rates by 108 basis points came a day after the World Bank said Chinese growth next year would be around 7.5 percent, the slowest rate since 1990.

The European Commission approved a package it hopes will be taken up by EU member states aimed at giving the sagging European economy a sharp, temporary boost with a 200 billion euro ($260 billion) spending plan across the 27-nation bloc, an EU source said. The plan, higher than initially thought, calls for a targeted and temporary fiscal stimulus of 1.5 percent of EU gross domestic product. National measures would account for around 170 billion euros, or 1.2 percent of GDP, and EU and European Investment Bank budgets around 30 billion euros.

monitor-163The stimulus moves in Europe and China followed Tuesday’s announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve of an $800 billion plan to buy mortgage-related debt and back consumer loans. With market-moving figures such as Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales being released, the market will likely see higher-than-usual volatility. Traders should wait to see which way the USD moves after the release of this data and enter the market accordingly.

The USD is falling on hard times, and right before the holiday season in the United States. The greenback has so far witnessed a sharp decrease in value against its currency counterparts. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement following the previous uptrend. However,there is some interesting issues in this scenario. The EUR did in fact make strong gains against the Dollar, but it remained flat against every other currency counterpart.

jason-usdjpyThis indicates two important pieces of information. First, this means the EUR did not move the EUR/USD pair, the USD did the moving. Second, it tells us the EUR is not moving much at all. This means the Euro-Zone economies are not having much of an impact on the value of its currency. The EUR may in fact be waiting for clear signs of direction from the United States’ economy before picking a direction.

As the global economy weakens further, major economies all over the world are cutting interest rates and weakening their currencies to boost investment which it’s now leading investor to seek better opportunities and founded with JPY and helping to boost the Japanese currency to new strengths. For that reason, the JPY is currently experiencing appreciation across the boards and we can think that the factor moving the Yen may not be found in Japanese economic data, but rather in the strength of the global economy. The JPY may continue to gather momentum, possibly breaching the 92.00 level.


Responses

  1. All those plans are ok for who are going to get some money from them, but what about normal people with nothing else than the house? Yes, you are right my friend, the USD falling on hard times, very hard times, more than I expected.


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